Anfield's Achilles Heel: Can Leeds Exploit Liverpool's Set-Piece Crisis?
Liverpool enter 2026 with a glaring vulnerability: 12 goals conceded from set-pieces, the worst record across Europe's elite leagues. Facing them is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, riding the longest scoring streak by an English striker since Jamie Vardy. With Leeds already securing a dramatic 3-3 draw at Elland Road in December, Thursday's encounter promises tactical intrigue beyond the fixture's traditional rivalry.
When Liverpool welcome Leeds United to Anfield on New Year's Day, the narrative extends far beyond traditional top-four aspirations. The Reds face an opponent emboldened by recent form and armed with knowledge of their most glaring deficiency—a set-piece vulnerability so severe it prompted the sacking of specialist coach Aaron Briggs just days ago.
The Defensive Crisis Slot Can't Ignore
Numbers don't lie, and Liverpool's tell a troubling story. According to Opta data, the defending champions have shipped 12 goals from set-pieces through 18 Premier League matches—no team in Europe's top five leagues has a worse record. Their set-piece differential of minus-nine represents the worst mark at any stage of a Premier League season in club history. Only 18th-placed West Ham have conceded more from corners (10 versus Liverpool's seven), while the Reds have leaked three goals from throw-ins, joint-most in the division alongside Newcastle.
Manager Arne Slot hasn't minced words about the crisis. Speaking before the festive fixtures, he admitted maintaining top-four status should be "impossible" with such numbers. The issue isn't merely statistical—it's existential for title ambitions. Liverpool won last season's crown while conceding just nine set-piece goals across the entire campaign; they've already surpassed that total before reaching the halfway point.
Calvert-Lewin's Redemption Arc Meets Liverpool's Weakness
Enter Dominic Calvert-Lewin, whose resurgence represents one of the season's most compelling narratives. The 28-year-old striker, signed on a free transfer from Everton last summer, has netted eight goals in 16 appearances for Leeds—already exceeding his Premier League tally from each of the previous four seasons. His current run of six consecutive scoring appearances marks the longest streak by an English striker since Jamie Vardy's eight-game sequence in 2019.
The timing couldn't be more fortuitous for Leeds. Calvert-Lewin thrives on aerial service and possesses the instincts to capitalize on defensive disorganization—precisely the cocktail Liverpool have served opponents all season. Gary Lineker praised the striker's movement patterns on The Rest Is Football podcast, comparing his anticipation to elite finishers who "gamble on where the ball might go" rather than reacting after crosses are delivered.
Leeds manager Daniel Farke has weaponized this threat effectively. In the teams' previous encounter—a chaotic 3-3 draw at Elland Road on December 6—Calvert-Lewin converted a penalty to spark Leeds' comeback from two goals down. Substitute Ao Tanaka's 96th-minute equalizer from a corner underscored Liverpool's Achilles heel. The match exposed systematic failures: Liverpool twice held two-goal advantages only to crumble under set-piece pressure.
Tactical Chess: Formation Shifts and Key Absences
Liverpool's selection headaches extend beyond systemic issues. While Dominik Szoboszlai returns from suspension to bolster midfield creativity, Mohamed Salah remains in Morocco for international duty, forcing Slot to rely on his transformed attack. Florian Wirtz, who scored his maiden Premier League goal against Wolves, has developed promising chemistry with left-back Milos Kerkez—a partnership that could prove crucial against Leeds' compact defensive shape.
Leeds arrive without Joe Rodon, whose ankle injury may force a tactical pivot from their successful 3-5-2 system to a more conservative 4-3-3 or 4-1-4-1 setup. This adjustment could limit their attacking width but might provide additional cover against Liverpool's full-backs, who have been caught high upfield in recent matches. The Whites have been unbeaten in five matches (two wins, three draws), climbing six points clear of the relegation zone with victories over Chelsea and Crystal Palace—scalps that demonstrate their capacity to trouble elite opposition.
Historical Context and New Year Patterns
Liverpool traditionally thrive in early January fixtures. Over the past 21 years, they've won five and drawn one of six matches played on January 1st or 2nd, with their last New Year's Day defeat coming against Chelsea in 2005. Conversely, Leeds have struggled in this calendar slot, winning just once in their last six Premier League fixtures at the turn of the year.
Yet historical patterns carry diminished weight against present realities. Leeds have scored in each of their previous eight Premier League matches, averaging 1.5 goals per game during their unbeaten streak. Their expected goals tally of 2.82 against Chelsea marked the highest any team registered against the Blues this season, including Champions League opponents. This statistical excellence suggests Leeds' improvement transcends mere fortune.
The Mohamed Salah Subplot
Salah's absence adds intrigue beyond tactical considerations. The forward's prolonged benching and subsequent bombshell interview questioning his future have created an undercurrent of instability. While Liverpool won 5-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt without him, domestic resilience remains unproven. Federico Chiesa and Jeremie Frimpong offer pace, but neither commands Salah's gravitational pull in opposition defensive planning.
The Analyst's Verdict
Impact Rating: B+
This fixture carries significance beyond three points. Liverpool must demonstrate they've addressed set-piece frailties that have haunted them all season—a tall order given Aaron Briggs' departure leaves coaching staff scrambling to implement solutions mid-season. Leeds possess the tactical blueprint and personnel to exploit these weaknesses, with Calvert-Lewin's aerial prowess representing Liverpool's nightmare scenario. Expect goals from both sides, but Liverpool's superior individual quality should eventually prevail in a high-scoring affair. Prediction: Liverpool 3-2 Leeds, with at least one Leeds goal coming from a set-piece situation.
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