The Broken Compass: Neymar’s 2026 World Cup Dream vs. The Physics of Decline

Whatever the opposite of a fairytale ending is, Neymar seems determined to write it—or perhaps, his body is writing it for him.

As the curtain falls on 2025, the Brazilian icon finds himself in a painfully familiar setting: a post-operative recovery room. The latest setback—a meniscus surgery following a grueling relegation dogfight with Santos—serves as a grim bookend to a year that was supposed to be his renaissance. With the 2026 World Cup in North America looming on the horizon, the narrative has shifted from 'Will he lead Brazil?' to 'Can he survive the selection process?'

The Saudi Sabbatical: The Most Expensive Minutes in History

To understand the desperation of Neymar’s current situation, one must quantify the disaster of his recent past. His departure from Al-Hilal in January 2025 wasn't just a transfer; it was the dissolution of one of football's most inefficient investments. The numbers are staggering.

Neymar arrived in Riyadh for a fee exceeding €90 million, but his legacy there is defined by absence. He played fewer than 10 competitive matches for the club over 18 months. When factoring in his reported €150 million annual salary and the transfer fee, each minute Neymar spent on the pitch for Al-Hilal cost the club approximately €400,000.

While Al-Hilal cut their losses to free up a foreign player slot, the damage to Neymar’s rhythm was profound. He effectively lost two years of high-level conditioning between the ACL tear in 2023 and the disjointed return in late 2024. The player who arrived at Santos in January 2025 was technically gifted but physically hollow.

The Santos Salvation: Heroism at a Cost

The romanticism of his return to Vila Belmiro quickly collided with the harsh reality of the 2025 Brasileirão. Far from chasing titles, Neymar found himself captaining a lifeboat. Santos, freshly promoted from Serie B, spent the entire 2025 campaign flirting with an immediate return to the second division.

Neymar’s contribution was undeniable but sporadic. In 20 appearances, he registered 6 goals and 3 assists—flashes of the old magic—but the physical toll was visible. He played the final three matches of the season with a torn meniscus, a sacrifice that arguably secured Santos' 16th-place finish and survival, but one that has now cost him his preseason for 2026.

• 2025 Season Availability: 52% of minutes played.
• Key Stat: Santos won 1.8 points per game with Neymar starting, compared to 0.9 without him.
• The Cost: Immediate surgery in December 2025, ruling him out until late January 2026.

The Ancelotti Ultimatum

The source text alludes to Carlo Ancelotti 'waiting' for Neymar, but the reality is far more transactional. Since taking the Brazil job in May 2025—following Dorival Júnior’s dismissal after the debacle against Argentina—Ancelotti has been pragmatic. The Italian manager, known for managing superstars, has built a functional, vertical system around Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo during the qualifiers.

Neymar is no longer the architectural center of the Seleção; he is a luxury variable. Ancelotti has publicly stated that selection for the 2026 squad will be based on '90-minute intensity,' a metric Neymar has not consistently met since leaving Paris Saint-Germain. The tragedy of Neymar’s career isn't a lack of talent; it's the timing of his fragility. He is a playmaker who needs the ball to dictate tempo, playing in an era where pressing structures ruthlessly punish stationary number 10s.